petróleo-brexit

LOS GOLPES AL PRECIO DEL PETRÓLEO ¿VIENEN DEL BREXIT?

El Reino Unido de la Gran Bretaña e Irlanda del Norte es un Estado importador de petróleo y gas, y su consumo es suficientemente importante entre los países europeos como para ser obviado. Más aún, Londres fue considerada por Z/Yen Group la capital financiera del mundo en 2015, por encima de Nueva York. Es por ello que el contexto del Brexit y su posible impacto en los precios del petróleo adquiere relevancia internacional.

Los precios del petróleo se incrementaron sostenidamente en las semanas de debate del Brexit, reflejando el optimismo de los inversionistas de cara al resultado de la consulta. Pero conforme se acercó la fecha de la votación y la campaña para dejar la Unión Europea (UE) tomó fuerza, los precios cayeron. Durante estas semanas, los comercializadores de petróleo no anunciaron grandes inversiones y estuvieron más bien atentos a la consulta.

El voto a favor del Brexit en el Reino Unido hundía el viernes los mercados, entre ellos los del petróleo, y provocaba una estampida de los inversores hacia valores refugio. El resultado del referendo fue un shock para la mayoría de los participantes de los mercados energéticos y financieros, pues estaban convencidos de que al final imperaría la voluntad de permanecer en la UE.

Tras dos días de declive, los precios del petroleo subía este martes al final de los intercambios europeos, beneficiándose de una ligera caída del dolar y de previsiones a la baja de las reservas estadounidenses de crudo.

En esta coyuntura vale la pena preguntarse ¿Qué consecuencias tendrá el Brexit en el mercado?

CONSECUENCIAS EN EL PRECIO DEL PETRÓLEO Y LOS MERCADOS

Corto plazo

Al día siguiente del sí al Brexit, los precios de los activos giraron dramáticamente, inclusive más violentamente que en la crisis de 2008 para algunas monedas y bancos centrales. La bolsa británica perdió 125 mil millones de libras esterlinas. A pesar de las pérdidas billonarias para los inversionistas, estos efectos no fueron la hecatombe que varios políticos europeos vaticinaban.

“Los precios del petróleo, el cobre y otras commodities cayeron, especialmente porque están tasados en dólares, lo cual incrementa el costo de las materias primas para las economías con monedas diferentes del dólar.” (The Economist, 2016). El gran ganador fue el oro, que ha gozado de sus mejores días desde el 2009.

A partir de este resultado, el consumo de barriles del Reino Unido también podría verse disminuido por esta nueva situación, en un rango que iría desde cero hasta 100 o 200 mil barriles de petróleo por día. Aunado a esto podemos esperar que los mercados de la energía, la gasolina y el gas experimenten un periodo de volatilidad a partir de fluctuaciones en la libra esterlina. Por tanto, el dólar será más fuerte, lo cual afectaría, al menos tímidamente, los mercados emergentes.

Mediano y largo plazo

“La trayectoria en el largo plazo de los precios del petróleo dependerá de qué tanto el Brexit disminuya el crecimiento de la economía mundial, la demanda de crudo y sus derivados. Los analistas dicen que un golpe al consumo de petróleo en Gran Bretaña no tendría por sí mismo un impacto significativo en los precios mundiales, pero si Europa en conjunto sufre por el Brexit una sacudida a su confianza en invertir, el golpe sería más severo.” (The Economist, 2016)

Esto podría acelerar que los bancos centrales suban las tasas de interés. En el caso de la Reserva Federal estadounidense, ésta fue cautelosa y decidió no subir su tasa de referencia previo al referendo. Con el Brexit, la probabilidad de que la tasa no sea ajustada en la próxima oportunidad es casi nula. Además se tendrán que revisar las premisas que derivaron en la estimación de que el petróleo terminaría el año entre 50 y 60 dólares por barril.

Para más información consultar http://www.economist.com/

 

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